A peak into 2022…

Happy New Year, folks. If you celebrated the Christmas holidays I hope you enjoyed yourself and managed to switch off for at least some of it. I did and it was well needed. It also gave me a lot of time to reflect on the last year and the coming year, not just personally or professionally, but across clothing production and retail. Here’s a few thoughts I had based on some conversations over the Christmas period. It’s brief, sort of! And I’ll continue to delve into these topics, and expand on them, over the next few months. I do love hearing your perspective so do send us a message via the ask anything button.

Fabrics and Trims

Following on from my last posting; the future of synthetics, we’re going to be hearing more about fibre to fibre and chemical recycling. Waste is a huge, and immediate, problem so there is going to be increased investment in this sector. As well as it having a smaller environmental footprint than any other sustainable initiatives to date. I will continue to recommend using caution if considering using biodegradable synthetics. While it sort of addresses a problem realistically, due to the leaps we’ve made in F2F recycling in the last couple of years, this is not a sustainable initiative that will age well. Especially not in 5 - 10 years time. Consider the other options available to you, question how long you anticipate a garment’s lifespan to be, and start simple. It’s not a huge leap to think that in a few years we’ll be able to fully recycle a monopolymer garment. While we will continue to see innovation into new fibres, especially new cellulose for sports and health, ageing infrastructure is the biggest hurdles around scaling of new fibre developments. One of the reason’s Bolt Threads was not able to achieve a scalable roll out of their spider silk. Working smart with what we already have available that’s efficiently scalable does make more commercial, and environmental, sense.

Photo from Sweet Lassi by Priya Ahluwalia

Towards the end of the year, as we learn more about the chemical recycling options that are having lab success, conversations around consolidating dye recipes for continuity colours will become more prevalent. Being able to recycle a colour minimises the amount of “slurry” left over after the recycling process, and reduces water and energy consumption used in fabric dyeing processes. We already know that dope dyeing is the most efficient option, and recycling continuity colours at the same time as the fibres will reduce waste and environmental footprint. This will further the need for mono component garments to ensure dye recipes are consistent.

Expect to see more reports towards the end of 2022 and the beginning of 2023 around recycled non wovens. Especially in the carbon space. We’re seeing this a lot in aeronautics and recycling of wind turbine blades so it won’t be long, as those techniques are refined, until they enter the apparel space.

Manufacturing

It’s unlikely that we will see our supply chain woes disappear this year. In fact I would wager that they’ll get worse before they get better. Compounded by a shortage of raw materials, further Covid outbreaks and an energy shortage; lead times are increasing to estimates we haven’t seen in decades. Cash rich brands are shoring up their supply chain by placing purchase orders up to 2 years in advance and leveraging margins across their ranges to ensure stock availability. This will hit small and medium sized brands the hardest, who will struggle with similar delay problems they’ve faced in the last 12 months. Brands may even be faced with a margin versus availability conundrum. While there is temptation to offer bonuses for on time delivery this needs to be overseen with a healthy amount of scepticism, illegal overtime and non compliance outsourcing is likely to the conclusion. If we don’t see the manufacturing space stabilise by the middle of the year then I predict we’ll see the rise of single sewer households taking rise across Europe if the great resignation continues it’s trajectory. Brands that can adapt to continental distribution through warehousing and logistics will benefit most from this. This is also where we are likely to see the gap widen between smaller brands who can prove they pay the living wage versus larger brands who won’t be able to ensure wages through the supply chain.

Distribution and Trade Deals

The news that Liz Truss (UK Conservative MP) now holds 3 cabinet positions (apparently gone are the days when just being an MP was a full time job, never mind the extra of being a single cabinet minister) don’t expect any of these “oven ready” trade deals to be fully baked any time this year. The trade deal between the UK and Australia was heralded at the end of last year in the press, but when reviewing the overall value; I concluded it would probably cost more in my time reading it than the value it would bring to the UK apparel industry. Instead the deal has raised concerns voiced by the RSPCA around the mulesing of sheep, of which 70% of Australian farmers still perform. While most brands in the UK have checks in place to avoid this, margin losses are likely to make for some difficult conversations in the development process, especially where there are multiple savings. The UK International Trade minister will travel to India this month to begin trade agreement talks (delayed from Jan 2021). This is likely to be the most significant win for the apparel industry, so watch this space.

Photo from RawPixel

Do expect a difficult first quarter for importing and exporting goods. In fact I’d wager this quarter will be more problematic that this time last year with increased Covid infections, a continued shortage of HGV drivers and containers, and record high prices for fuel. In the UK we have a new paperwork system to contend with (yes, again.) and the world’s customs system has had it’s first update in 5 years with a streamlined effort to make HS codes simpler coming into effect 1st Jan 2022. Expect teething problems. A lot of them.

There will be improvements as we head into summer in the northern hemisphere, and we’ll see a further drive to eliminate paper instructions and moving to QR codes. Which is not only good for the environment, it will improve ordering efficiency and reduce delays.

Sales Channels

Convenience still reigns as king for the consumer so expect to see sales split even further across multiple channels. A brand to watch here is probably Nike. They’ve made a number of moves over the last 5 years to consolidate margins into their own business and remove 3rd party retailers. How their sales channels are likely to expand will give an inkling into how the next few years plays out. They have the budget, and the team, to assess every sale (to businesses and governments data is king), but they’re a big ship so where they put their money is an indicator of good returns.

The sales channel is the place to embrace technology for 2022. While there is a lot of chatter around technology revolutionising the supply chain, and it will, there is ageing infrastructure to contend with first. Digitalised products rather than physically shot samples will reduce lead times and business costs without impacting sales.

A final note…

While sustainability will continue to be at the forefront of conversations happening in nearly every sector we are likely to see shifts in the language being used, especially in marketing. Sustainability is a big topic and as consumers become savvy in decoding marketing messages that fail to align to a brand’s intent versus impact, a brand’s message will need to adapt to that. One off projects or products; like Adidas Bolt Threads tennis dress, or Napapijri Circular Series jacket, will become a concept of the past towards the end of the year as consumer focus on whole business / range impact.

Wishing you all a prosperous 2022!